Intellectual disconnect. With everything on fire, will people wake up?
The weather report for today from the Trib:
A headline from Cowboy State Daily:
‘It Was Armageddon’: Eastern Wyoming Community Evacuated By Wildfire
Some headlines from today's Trib:
And a common political theme in Wyoming, albeit here from a doomed attempt at displacing the current incumbent Senator, with the incumbent right below him:
Wyomingites claim, and very often really do, have a deep love of the wildness of our state and nature. And yet, at the same time, the economy of the state, and its reliance upon extractive industries, causes a deep loyalty to the fossil fuel industries, beyond that, very ironically, which those industries have themselves.
Speak to any of the more knowledgeable and powerful people within the coal or petroleum industries, and you will not tend to get debate on anthropocentric caused global warming. They accept it, and frankly accept that they're going away in their current forms. They will debate how rapidly they can go away, with quite a bit of variance between that. Many in the industry are realpolitik practitioners in regard to energy, accepting the decline as inevitable, but cynical about how fast it can occur. Some, however, are nearly "green" in their view, and see a rapid phase out.
It's at the wellhead level, and the coal shovel level, that you have those who can't accept it. The same people will look forward to elk season, but can't imagine that what's happening is happening, and that it's bad for the elk. But then many of the same people imagine themselves being outdoorsman while planted on the back of an ATV.
Politicians, some genuine, and some not, emphasize the wallet end of this. "America needs", "America depends", etc. Well, it's passing away.
Passing away with it may be the town of Heartville Wyoming, but not due to economics, but due to catastrophic fire.
Human memories are flawed, and that's where we get into false debates and the The Dunning-Kruger effect. The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people with limited competence in a particular domain overestimate their abilities. The flipside, interestingly enough, is the Imposter Syndrome, in which highly competent people imagine that they are not.
Combine the Dunning-Kruger effect with poor memories, poor education and dislocation from your native place, and you get what we have here.
Add in economic self interest, and well you really get what we have here.
I'll hear all the time that the weather today is the same as it always was. BS. My memory on these things is good, and I can recall that 100F days were so rare when I was a kid that entire years went by in which we didn't experience them. Nor did we experience constant year after year fires like this. Indeed, as a National Guardsmen I was sent to two fires, back when resources were so thin on this topic, as they weren't really needed, that this was routine for the Guard.
Two fires in six years.
I've never heard of a Wyoming town being evacuated for a fire until now.
Yes, fires have always occurred, as the naysayers will note, but not so often and not like this.
And to add to it, whether Wyomingites want to believe it or not, coal in particular is on its way out. It simply is. 500,000 people can sit in a corner of the country saying "nuh uh", but that's not going to make it change. It's been on the way out for a century or more:
Coal: Understanding the time line of an industry
Petroleum is less vulnerable than coal, in part because of the often forgotten petrochemical industry. A friend of mine who was a geologist and and an engineer was of the view that the consumption of petroleum for ground transportation ought to be phased out simply for that reason, to save it for petrochemicals. But big changes are coming here too. Electric vehicles are coming in, like it or not. The switch to green, and all that means, some good and some bad, is coming.
Denying that and maintaining that the rest of the country must pretend its 1973 isn't going to change that.
